เปรียบเทียบวิธี
ดูวิธีที่เลือกเทียบกันแบบเคียงข้าง แถวที่ต่างกันจะถูกเน้นไว้
| Exponential GARCH (EGARCH)× | แบบจำลอง ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)× | แบบจำลองความแปรปรวนแบบมีเงื่อนไขอัตถอยทั่วไป (GARCH)× | GJR-GARCH (GARCH แบบไม่สมมาตร)× | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| สาขาวิชา | เศรษฐมิติ | เศรษฐมิติ | เศรษฐมิติ | เศรษฐมิติ |
| ตระกูล | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| ปีกำเนิด≠ | 1991 | 2015 | 1986 | 1993 |
| ผู้ริเริ่ม≠ | Nelson | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Tim Bollerslev | Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993); Zakoian (1994) |
| ประเภท≠ | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) | Univariate time-series model | Conditional volatility model | Asymmetric conditional volatility model |
| แหล่งต้นตำรับ≠ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. DOI ↗ | Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R. & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779-1801. DOI ↗ |
| ชื่อเรียกอื่น≠ | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli | asymmetric GARCH, leverage GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH — Asimetrik GARCH (Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle) |
| ที่เกี่ยวข้อง≠ | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| สรุป≠ | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns. | GJR-GARCH is a variant of the GARCH conditional-volatility model that captures the asymmetric effect of negative shocks on volatility using an indicator variable. It was introduced by Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1993), with a closely related threshold formulation by Zakoian (1994). |
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