เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	การทดสอบการควบคุมเชิงเบย์เซียน	การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบเชิงสาเหตุ
สาขาวิชา	การอนุมานเชิงสาเหตุ	การอนุมานเชิงสาเหตุ
ตระกูล	Regression model	Regression model
ปีกำเนิด	2010-2015	2015
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Bayesian causal impact context); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (placebo permutation tradition)	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
ประเภท	Robustness check / falsification test	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	Bayesian falsification test, Bayesian permutation placebo, Bayesian robustness check, Bayesian in-time placebo	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	5	5
สรุป	The Bayesian Placebo Test is a falsification strategy for causal inference that applies Bayesian inference to placebo scenarios — either fake treatments in the pre-intervention period, on unaffected units, or at fictitious cut-offs — to verify that observed treatment effects cannot plausibly arise by chance or from a misspecified model. It integrates prior information and yields posterior distributions of placebo effects for direct probabilistic comparison.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.