เปรียบเทียบวิธี
ดูวิธีที่เลือกเทียบกันแบบเคียงข้าง แถวที่ต่างกันจะถูกเน้นไว้
| แบบจำลอง ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)× | แบบจำลองปริภูมิสถานะ (ตัวกรองคาลมาน)× | แบบจำลองอนุกรมเวลาเชิงโครงสร้าง (แบบจำลองโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| สาขาวิชา | เศรษฐมิติ | เศรษฐมิติ | เศรษฐมิติ |
| ตระกูล | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| ปีกำเนิด≠ | 2015 | 1990 | 1990 |
| ผู้ริเริ่ม≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter | Andrew C. Harvey |
| ประเภท≠ | Univariate time-series model | State space time series model | State-space (unobserved components) time series model |
| แหล่งต้นตำรับ≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗ | Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521405737 |
| ชื่อเรียกอื่น≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter) | BSM, basic structural model, unobserved components model, Yapısal Zaman Serisi Modeli (BSM) |
| ที่เกี่ยวข้อง≠ | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| สรุป≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases. | The Structural Time Series Model, in its Basic Structural Model (BSM) form, is Andrew Harvey's state-space approach that decomposes a series into separate stochastic trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular components. Developed in Harvey's 1990 treatment, it is prized for interpretability and component decomposition where ARIMA only delivers a black-box fit. |
| ScholarGateชุดข้อมูล ↗ |
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