Real-Time Delphi
Real-Time Delphi is a roundless, asynchronous, computer-mediated reinvention of the classic Delphi method, developed by Theodore Gordon and Adam Pease in 2006. Where conventional Delphi proceeds through discrete questionnaire rounds — collect, aggregate, redistribute, repeat — Real-Time Delphi collapses the rounds entirely: experts log in to an online platform whenever they choose, see the panel's current aggregate estimates and the rationales behind them, and revise their own answers continuously, with the aggregate updating live as they do. This always-on feedback architecture preserves the core Delphi virtues of anonymity and structured feedback while removing the long delays, fixed schedules, and administrative burden of round-based administration. As described by Gordon and Pease and catalogued in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, the method makes large, distributed, and time-pressured expert elicitations practical, letting a panel converge through continuous interaction rather than through a rigid sequence of rounds.
Soma mbinu kamili
Ingia kwa akaunti ya bure ili kusoma sehemu hii.
Ramani ya mbinu
Jirani ya mbinu zinazohusiana — chagua nodi ili kuchunguza.
Vyanzo
- Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, round-less almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321-333. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005 ↗
- Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
Jinsi ya kunukuu ukurasa huu
ScholarGate. (2026, June 23). Real-Time Delphi (Roundless, Asynchronous Computer-Mediated Expert Elicitation). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/sw/futures-foresight-studies/real-time-delphi
Mbinu ipi?
Weka mbinu hii kando ya jamaa zake wa karibu na uzisome bega kwa bega — maktaba huweka vitabu mezani; uamuzi ni wako.
- Cross-Impact Balance AnalysisFutures Foresight Studies↔ linganisha
- Environmental Scanning for ForesightFutures Foresight Studies↔ linganisha
- Trend Impact AnalysisFutures Foresight Studies↔ linganisha
- Wild Card AnalysisFutures Foresight Studies↔ linganisha
Mbinu zinazofanana
Umeona tatizo kwenye ukurasa huu? Ripoti au pendekeza marekebisho →