Linganisha mbinu

	Kipimo cha Mipaka cha Bayesian ARDL	Mchoro wa Marekebisho ya Hitilafu ya Vekta wa Bayesian (Bayesian VECM)
Nyanja	Ekonometriki	Ekonometriki
Familia	Regression model	Regression model
Mwaka wa asili	2001 (ARDL); Bayesian extension 2010s	2002–2005
Mwanzilishi	Pesaran, Shin & Smith (ARDL framework, 2001); Bayesian adaptation by subsequent literature	Kleibergen & Paap; Villani
Aina	Cointegration / bounds testing	Bayesian multivariate time series model
Chanzo asilia	Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.	Kleibergen, F., & Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111(2), 223–249.
Majina mbadala	Bayesian ARDL, Bayesian bounds testing approach, Bayes ARDL cointegration, Bayesian PSS bounds test	Bayesian VECM, B-VECM, Bayesian cointegrated VAR, Bayesian vector error correction
Zinazohusiana	5	5
Muhtasari	The Bayesian ARDL Bounds Test extends the classical Pesaran-Shin-Smith (2001) bounds testing approach to cointegration by embedding it within a Bayesian inferential framework. Instead of relying on frequentist F- and t-statistics with tabulated critical values, the researcher specifies prior distributions on the model parameters and derives posterior evidence of a long-run level relationship between variables that may be integrated of order zero or one.	The Bayesian VECM combines the classical Vector Error Correction Model — which captures both short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships among non-stationary multivariate time series — with Bayesian prior distributions over the cointegrating rank and coefficient matrices. This allows principled uncertainty quantification, incorporation of economic theory as priors, and coherent inference even in small samples.