Jämför metoder

	Konform prediktion för tidsserieprognoser	ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Modell	Kvantilregression
Ämnesområde	Ekonometri	Ekonometri	Ekonometri
Familj	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Ursprungsår	2021	2015	1978
Upphovsperson	Angelopoulos & Bates (tutorial); Xu & Xie (time-series EnbPI)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Koenker & Bassett
Typ	Distribution-free prediction interval wrapper	Univariate time-series model	Conditional quantile regression
Ursprungskälla	Angelopoulos, A. N. & Bates, S. (2023). Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 16(4), 494-591.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Koenker, R. & Bassett, G., Jr. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Alias	conformal prediction, distribution-free prediction intervals, EnbPI, Konformal Tahmin (Conformal Prediction — Zaman Serisi)	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	conditional quantile regression, regression quantiles, Kantil Regresyon
Närliggande	4	5	5
Sammanfattning	Conformal prediction is a distribution-free wrapper that turns any point forecaster — ARIMA, a neural network, or a machine-learning model — into valid prediction intervals using only its residuals. The time-series form was popularised by Xu & Xie (2021) and the modern tutorial treatment by Angelopoulos & Bates (2023).	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Quantile regression models conditional quantiles of an outcome - the median, the 25th or 75th percentile, and so on - rather than the conditional mean that OLS targets. Introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, it reveals how predictors act across the whole distribution, including its tails.