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| ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Modell× | Vanligaste minsta kvadratmetoden (OLS) Regression× | Theta-metoden× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ämnesområde | Ekonometri | Ekonometri | Ekonometri |
| Familj | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Ursprungsår≠ | 2015 | 2019 | 2000 |
| Upphovsperson≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares | Assimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos |
| Typ≠ | Univariate time-series model | Linear regression | Univariate time-series forecasting model |
| Ursprungskälla≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860 | Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu | theta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi |
| Närliggande≠ | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Sammanfattning≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). | The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition. |
| ScholarGateDatamängd ↗ |
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