Jämför metoder
Granska de valda metoderna sida vid sida; rader som skiljer sig är markerade.
| ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Modell× | DCC-GARCH (Dynamisk betingad korrelation)× | Exponentiell GARCH (EGARCH)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ämnesområde≠ | Ekonometri | Finansiell ekonomi | Ekonometri |
| Familj | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Ursprungsår≠ | 2015 | 2002 | 1991 |
| Upphovsperson≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Robert F. Engle | Nelson |
| Typ≠ | Univariate time-series model | Multivariate volatility model | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) |
| Ursprungskälla≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Engle, R. (2002). Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. DOI ↗ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | dynamic conditional correlation, Engle DCC, multivariate GARCH, DCC-GARCH — Dinamik Koşullu Korelasyon | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH |
| Närliggande≠ | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Sammanfattning≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | DCC-GARCH is Engle's (2002) multivariate volatility model that lets the correlations between several assets change over time. A separate univariate GARCH model is fitted to each series, and then the dynamic correlation matrix is estimated in a second, separate step. | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. |
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