Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization

Bayesian System Dynamics — Probabilističko procenjivanje parametara i propagacija neizvesnosti u SD modelima

Bayesian System Dynamics (BSD) integriše Bejzijansko statističko zaključivanje sa kauzalnim modelima simulacije zaliha i tokova. Predhodna znanja o parametrima modela se ažuriraju korišćenjem opserviranih vremenskih serija podataka kako bi se proizvele posteriorne distribucije, koje se zatim propagiraju kroz simulaciju da bi se dobile probabilističke prognoze i evaluacije politika, umesto jedinstvenih determinističkih putanja.

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Izvori

  1. Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. D. (2008). Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Management Science, 54(5), 998–1014. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0787
  2. System dynamics. Wikipedia. link

Kako citirati ovu stranicu

ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian System Dynamics — Probabilistic parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation in system dynamics models. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/sr/simulation/bayesian-system-dynamics

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Citirana u

ScholarGateBayesian System Dynamics (Bayesian System Dynamics — Probabilistic parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation in system dynamics models). Preuzeto 2026-06-15 sa https://scholargate.app/sr/simulation/bayesian-system-dynamics · Skup podataka: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026