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| MCMC za vremenske serije× | Динамичко Бајесово закључивање× | |
|---|---|---|
| Oblast | Bajesovska statistika | Bajesovska statistika |
| Porodica | Bayesian methods | Bayesian methods |
| Godina nastanka≠ | 1994–1997 | 1989–1997 |
| Tvorac≠ | Carter & Kohn; West & Harrison | West & Harrison (dynamic linear models); Dean & Kanazawa (dynamic Bayesian networks) |
| Tip≠ | Bayesian posterior sampling for time-ordered data | Bayesian sequential / online inference framework |
| Temeljni izvor≠ | Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika, 81(3), 541–553. DOI ↗ | West, M. & Harrison, J. (1997). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387947259 |
| Drugi nazivi | MCMC time series, Bayesian time series MCMC, time series posterior sampling, sequential Bayesian MCMC | online Bayesian inference, sequential Bayesian updating, recursive Bayesian estimation, dynamic Bayesian updating |
| Srodne | 6 | 6 |
| Sažetak≠ | Time series MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to Bayesian inference over time-ordered data. Rather than optimising a single parameter estimate, it draws samples from the full joint posterior of parameters and latent states, yielding probability distributions that honestly reflect uncertainty about dynamics, trends, and seasonal patterns across every time point. | Dynamic Bayesian inference is a framework for performing Bayesian updating sequentially as new observations arrive over time. Rather than fitting a static model to a fixed dataset, it tracks how a posterior distribution over latent states or parameters evolves step by step, combining a prior with each new likelihood to produce an updated posterior that propagates forward through time. |
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