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| Višeperiodna kontrafaktuelna evaluacija uticaja× | Marginalni strukturni model (MSM)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Oblast | Kauzalno zaključivanje | Kauzalno zaključivanje |
| Porodica | Regression model | Regression model |
| Godina nastanka≠ | 2000s–2010s | 2000 |
| Tvorac≠ | Developed through EU policy evaluation practice (European Commission); formalized by Lechner, Caliendo, and related econometricians | James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernan, Babette Brumback |
| Tip≠ | Causal inference / quasi-experimental evaluation | Causal model / semiparametric weighting |
| Temeljni izvor≠ | Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2008). Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(1), 31-72. DOI ↗ | Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550-560. DOI ↗ |
| Drugi nazivi | multi-period CIE, longitudinal counterfactual evaluation, dynamic counterfactual impact evaluation, multi-wave CIE | MSM, MSM-IPTW, marginal structural Cox model, weighted structural model |
| Srodne≠ | 4 | 5 |
| Sažetak≠ | Multi-period Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (CIE) estimates the causal effect of a policy or program by constructing what would have happened to treated units across multiple time periods had they not been treated. Unlike single-period evaluations, it tracks treatment effects as they evolve over time, capturing dynamic, delayed, or fading impacts that a two-period comparison would miss. | A marginal structural model is a causal modeling framework designed to estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment in the presence of time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by prior treatment. By reweighting observations with inverse probability of treatment weights, MSMs create a pseudo-population in which confounding is eliminated, enabling unbiased estimation of causal treatment contrasts even when standard regression adjustments would fail. |
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