Regression modelQuasi-experimental / causal inference

Bajezijska metoda sintetičke kontrole

Bajezijska metoda sintetičke kontrole procenjuje kauzalni efekat intervencije na jedinicu tretiranu intervencijom konstruišući verovatnički kontrafaktual iz ponderisane kombinacije netretiranih jedinica donora. Za razliku od klasične metode sintetičke kontrole (SCM), ona postavљa prethodnu distribuciju na sintetičke težine, dajući potpune intervale posteriorne neizvesnosti za kontrafaktualnu putanju i efekat tretmana u svakoj tački vremena nakon intervencije.

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Izvori

  1. Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274. DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS788
  2. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505. DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746

Kako citirati ovu stranicu

ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian Synthetic Control Method. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/sr/causal-inference/bayesian-synthetic-control-method

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Citirana u

ScholarGateBayesian Synthetic Control Method (Bayesian Synthetic Control Method). Preuzeto 2026-06-15 sa https://scholargate.app/sr/causal-inference/bayesian-synthetic-control-method · Skup podataka: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026