Сравнение методов

	Sundial: генеративные фундаментальные модели временных рядов	Chronos	Moirai: Универсальное прогнозирование временных рядов с помощью трансформера	TimesFM: Модель-фундамент только с декодером для прогнозирования временных рядов
Область	Глубокое обучение	Глубокое обучение	Глубокое обучение	Глубокое обучение
Семейство	Machine learning	Machine learning	Machine learning	Machine learning
Год появления	2025	2024	2024	2024
Автор метода	Yong Liu et al. (Tsinghua)	Abdul Fatir Ansari et al. (Amazon)	Gerald Woo et al. (Salesforce)	Abhimanyu Das et al. (Google)
Тип	Generative time-series foundation model family	Pre-trained language-model-based time-series forecaster	Foundation model for zero-shot time-series forecasting	Pre-trained decoder-only transformer for zero-shot time-series forecasting
Основополагающий источник	Liu, Y., Qin, G., Shi, X., Hu, T., Wang, J., & Long, M. (2025). Sundial: A family of highly capable time series foundation models. ICML.	Ansari, A. F., Stella, L., Turkmen, C., Zhang, X., Mercado, P., Shen, H., et al. (2024). Chronos: Learning the language of time series. Transactions on Machine Learning Research.	Woo, G., Liu, C., Kumar, A., Xiong, C., Savarese, S., & Sahoo, D. (2024). Unified training of universal time series forecasting transformers. ICML.	Das, A., Kong, W., Sen, R., & Zhou, Y. (2024). A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting. ICML.
Другие названия	Sundial TSF, Time-Series Foundation Model (Generative), Sundial ICML 2025, Zaman Serisi Temel Modeli (Sundial)	Chronos Forecasting Model, Amazon Chronos, Tokenized Time-Series LLM, Kronos Zaman Serisi Modeli	Unified Time-Series Transformer, Universal Forecasting Transformer, MOIRAI, Evrensel Zaman Serisi Tahmin Transformatörü	Time-series Foundation Model, Google TimesFM, TimesFM forecaster, Zaman Serisi Temel Modeli
Связанные	3	2	3	3
Сводка	Sundial is a family of generative time-series foundation models introduced by Yong Liu and colleagues at Tsinghua University (ICML 2025). Pre-trained on large and diverse time-series corpora, Sundial employs a decomposition-based architecture paired with a generative forecasting head to produce probabilistic multi-horizon forecasts. It represents a shift toward general-purpose, zero-shot-capable models for real-world temporal prediction tasks.	Chronos is a family of pre-trained probabilistic forecasting models introduced by Ansari et al. at Amazon in 2024. It adapts the language-model paradigm to time series by quantizing continuous values into discrete tokens, enabling a standard transformer to be trained on a large heterogeneous corpus of time-series data. The result is a zero-shot forecasting model that generalizes across domains without requiring dataset-specific retraining.	Moirai is a foundation model for universal time-series forecasting introduced by Gerald Woo and colleagues at Salesforce Research in 2024 and presented at ICML. The core idea is to pre-train a single large Transformer on an exceptionally diverse corpus of time-series data (LOTSA) spanning many domains and frequencies, enabling zero-shot and few-shot forecasting on unseen datasets without task-specific retraining. Moirai employs patch-based tokenization, any-variate attention, and a mixture-of-distributions output head to handle variable frequencies, multiple variates, and probabilistic prediction in a unified architecture.	TimesFM is a pre-trained foundation model for univariate time-series forecasting introduced by Abhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, and Yichen Zhou from Google in 2024. The model adopts a decoder-only transformer architecture, similar in spirit to large language models, and is trained on a large corpus of real-world and synthetic time-series data. Its central innovation is the ability to perform accurate zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains without task-specific fine-tuning.