Сравнение методов

	Модель распределения убытков	Теория доверительной оценки	Теория экстремальных значений (Extreme Value Theory, EVT)
Область	Актуарная наука	Актуарная наука	Финансы
Семейство	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Год появления	2012	1967	2001
Автор метода	Klugman, Panjer & Willmot	Hans Bühlmann	Coles (textbook treatment); McNeil, Frey & Embrechts
Тип	Parametric probability model	Weighted linear blend of individual and collective experience	Tail / extreme-event model
Основополагающий источник	Klugman, S. A., Panjer, H. H., & Willmot, G. E. (2012). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (4th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-118-31532-3	Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207.	Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer. ISBN: 978-1852334598
Другие названия	Severity-Frequency Model, Aggregate Loss Model, Claim Size Distribution Model, Hasar Dağılımı Modeli	Bühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik Teorisi	EVT, generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto distribution, peaks over threshold
Связанные	3	3	5
Сводка	A Loss Distribution Model is a parametric statistical framework used in actuarial science to characterise the probabilistic behaviour of insurance claim amounts and frequencies. Developed comprehensively by Klugman, Panjer, and Willmot in their foundational text Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (first edition 1998, fourth edition 2012), these models underpin premium rating, reserving, reinsurance pricing, and regulatory capital calculations across the insurance and risk-management industries.	Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles.	Extreme Value Theory is a statistical framework for modelling the rare events that live in the tail of a probability distribution. As developed in Coles (2001) and applied to risk by McNeil, Frey & Embrechts (2005), it offers two standard routes: the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for block maxima and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), used in the peaks-over-threshold approach, for exceedances above a high threshold.