Сравнение методов

	Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality	Модель Ли-Картера
Область	Демография	Демография
Семейство	Regression model	Regression model
Год появления	1860	1992
Автор метода	Benjamin Gompertz & William Makeham	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
Тип	Parametric mortality (hazard) law for adult ages	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
Основополагающий источник	Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115, 513–583.	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
Другие названия	Gompertz-Makeham Model, Makeham's Law, Gompertz Law of Mortality, Gompertz-Makeham Ölümlülük Yasası	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
Связанные	4	2
Сводка	The Gompertz-Makeham law is the foundational parametric model of adult human mortality. Benjamin Gompertz showed in 1825 that the force of mortality rises exponentially with age, and William Makeham added an age-independent background term in 1860 to account for deaths from causes unrelated to ageing. The combined law expresses the hazard of death as a constant plus an exponentially increasing component, capturing the dominant shape of adult mortality with just three parameters.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.