Сравнение методов

	Конформное прогнозирование для временных рядов	Регрессия методом обыкновенных наименьших квадратов (ОНМК)	Квантильная регрессия
Область	Эконометрика	Эконометрика	Эконометрика
Семейство	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Год появления	2021	2019	1978
Автор метода	Angelopoulos & Bates (tutorial); Xu & Xie (time-series EnbPI)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares	Koenker & Bassett
Тип	Distribution-free prediction interval wrapper	Linear regression	Conditional quantile regression
Основополагающий источник	Angelopoulos, A. N. & Bates, S. (2023). Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 16(4), 494-591.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860	Koenker, R. & Bassett, G., Jr. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Другие названия	conformal prediction, distribution-free prediction intervals, EnbPI, Konformal Tahmin (Conformal Prediction — Zaman Serisi)	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu	conditional quantile regression, regression quantiles, Kantil Regresyon
Связанные	4	5	5
Сводка	Conformal prediction is a distribution-free wrapper that turns any point forecaster — ARIMA, a neural network, or a machine-learning model — into valid prediction intervals using only its residuals. The time-series form was popularised by Xu & Xie (2021) and the modern tutorial treatment by Angelopoulos & Bates (2023).	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).	Quantile regression models conditional quantiles of an outcome - the median, the 25th or 75th percentile, and so on - rather than the conditional mean that OLS targets. Introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, it reveals how predictors act across the whole distribution, including its tails.