Comparar métodos

	Análise de Sensibilidade de Cenários de Políticas	Análise de Cenários de Políticas
Área	Simulação	Simulação
Família	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Ano de origem	1990s–2000s	1967–1990s
Autor original	Saltelli, A. et al.; Lempert, R. J. et al.	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
Tipo	Analytical framework combining scenario planning with sensitivity analysis	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
Fonte seminal	Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., & Tarantola, S. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. ISBN: 9780470059975	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
Outros nomes	PSSA, Policy Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario-Based Sensitivity Analysis, Policy Robustness Analysis	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
Relacionados	5	5
Resumo	Policy Scenario Sensitivity Analysis (PSSA) combines structured scenario planning with formal sensitivity analysis to determine which model inputs and policy parameters most strongly drive outcomes across a set of distinct policy alternatives or future states. It is widely used in public health, climate, energy, and economic policy modeling to identify robust interventions that perform well even when key assumptions vary.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.