Comparar métodos

	Análise de Impacto Causal para Avaliação de Políticas	Séries Temporais Interrompidas para Avaliação de Políticas
Área	Inferência causal	Inferência causal
Família	Regression model	Regression model
Ano de origem	2015	1975 (intervention analysis); 2000s–2010s (policy evaluation framing)
Autor original	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (2015); adapted for policy evaluation contexts	Box & Tiao (1975); popularised for policy by Shadish, Cook & Campbell (2002) and Bernal et al. (2017)
Tipo	Bayesian counterfactual / time-series	Quasi-experimental causal design
Fonte seminal	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
Outros nomes	policy causal impact, BSTS policy evaluation, Bayesian policy impact assessment, CIA policy evaluation	ITS for policy evaluation, policy ITS, segmented regression for policy, policy impact ITS
Relacionados	6	4
Resumo	Policy Evaluation Causal Impact Analysis applies the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) framework of Brodersen et al. (2015) to estimate the causal effect of a policy intervention on aggregate outcomes. By constructing a synthetic counterfactual from pre-policy data and control covariates, it asks: what would have happened had the policy not been enacted? The difference between observed and predicted post-policy outcomes is the estimated policy effect.	Interrupted Time Series (ITS) for policy evaluation uses routinely collected aggregate time-series data to estimate the causal impact of a policy change. A segmented regression model splits the series at a known intervention date, estimating both an immediate level shift and a change in trend attributable to the policy — without requiring a randomised control group.