Comparar métodos

	Análise de Impacto Causal com Dados em Painel	Método do Controle Sintético (MCS)
Área	Inferência causal	Inferência causal
Família	Regression model	Regression model
Ano de origem	2015 (base method); panel extension mid-2010s	2003–2010
Autor original	Brodersen et al. (2015); panel extension by Holtz et al. and subsequent literature	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
Tipo	Bayesian structural time-series causal inference	Quasi-experimental causal inference
Fonte seminal	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
Outros nomes	Panel CausalImpact, multi-unit causal impact, panel BSTS causal inference, panel structural time-series causal analysis	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
Relacionados	6	4
Resumo	Panel data causal impact analysis extends the Bayesian structural time-series approach of Brodersen et al. (2015) to multi-unit panel settings, estimating the counterfactual for several treated units simultaneously using control units as a donor pool. It produces credible intervals for the causal effect at each post-intervention time point, aggregated across units and periods.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.