Comparar métodos

	Exposure Modeling (Disaster Risk)	Vulnerability and Damage Function Analysis
Área	Disaster Studies	Disaster Studies
Família	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Ano de origem	2017	2003
Autor original	Catalina Yepes-Estrada & Vitor Silva (GEM); GEM Foundation global exposure program	Tiziana Rossetto & Amr Elnashai; Charles Kircher, Robert Whitman & William Holmes
Tipo	Spatial-inventory construction pipeline for elements at risk	Loss-ratio estimation pipeline conditional on hazard intensity
Fonte seminal	Yepes-Estrada, C., Silva, V., Valcárcel, J., Acevedo, A. B., Tarque, N., Hube, M. A., Coronel, G., & Santa María, H. (2017). Modeling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment. Earthquake Spectra, 33(1), 299-322.	Rossetto, T., & Elnashai, A. (2003). Derivation of vulnerability functions for European-type RC structures based on observational data. Engineering Structures, 25(10), 1241-1263.
Outros nomes	Exposure Database Development, Asset Inventory Modeling, Building Exposure Model, Elements at Risk Mapping	Damage Function Estimation, Loss Ratio Curves, Mean Damage Ratio Functions, Stage-Damage Functions
Relacionados	4	4
Resumo	Exposure modeling builds the geolocated inventory of assets, people, and values that are at risk from a hazard, the elements-at-risk layer that, together with hazard and vulnerability, determines disaster loss. It answers what is where and worth how much: how many buildings of each construction type sit in each location, their replacement value, and the population that occupies them at different times of day. Catalina Yepes-Estrada, Vitor Silva, and colleagues' 2017 South America residential exposure model and Vitor Silva and colleagues' 2020 global seismic risk model exemplify the modern approach of synthesizing census statistics, building characteristics, and expert mapping into open, georeferenced databases. Because loss equals hazard acting on exposure through vulnerability, exposure accuracy often dominates the realism of a risk estimate. Exposure models feed catastrophe models, HAZUS-style loss estimation, and probabilistic risk metrics like average annual loss. Constructing them well, with consistent taxonomy, credible values, and validated counts, is foundational to all downstream disaster risk analysis.	Vulnerability and damage function analysis estimates the expected loss ratio, the repair or replacement cost expressed as a fraction of an asset's value, as a continuous function of hazard intensity. It is the loss-facing counterpart to fragility analysis: where fragility gives the probability of physical damage states, a vulnerability function gives money, translating intensity directly into expected fractional loss together with its uncertainty. Tiziana Rossetto and Amr Elnashai's 2003 derivation of vulnerability functions for European reinforced-concrete buildings from observed damage is a canonical empirical example, while Charles Kircher, Robert Whitman, and William Holmes's 2006 description of HAZUS earthquake methods shows the standard route of combining fragility curves with damage-state loss factors to build them analytically. The output is the per-typology relationship that, multiplied by exposed value, yields scenario and probabilistic loss. Because it bridges engineering damage and economic consequence, it is the single most influential ingredient in catastrophe and loss models. Getting the mean and the spread of the loss ratio right is what makes a risk model usable for insurance, mitigation, and policy.