Comparar métodos
Examine os métodos selecionados lado a lado; as linhas que diferem ficam destacadas.
| Technology Delphi× | Horizon Scanning× | |
|---|---|---|
| Área | Science Technology Studies | Science Technology Studies |
| Família | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Ano de origem≠ | 1975 | 2009 |
| Autor original≠ | Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany) | William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community |
| Tipo≠ | Iterative structured expert-survey process | Systematic search-and-detection process |
| Fonte seminal≠ | Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948 | Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527. DOI ↗ |
| Outros nomes | Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast | Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis |
| Relacionados | 4 | 4 |
| Resumo≠ | The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities. | Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy. |
| ScholarGateConjunto de dados ↗ |
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