Comparar métodos

	Modelo Hierárquico Bayesiano	Sistema Bonus-Malus
Área	Bayesiano	Ciências atuariais
Família	Bayesian methods	Regression model
Ano de origem	2006	1995
Autor original	Gelman & Hill (2006); Bayesian multilevel tradition	Jean Lemaire
Tipo	hierarchical probabilistic model	Actuarial experience-rating model
Fonte seminal	Gelman, A. & Hill, J. (2006). Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge University Press.	Lemaire, J. (1995). Bonus-Malus Systems in Automobile Insurance. Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 978-0-7923-9545-5
Outros nomes	multilevel Bayes, Bayesian multilevel model, Bayesian HLM, partial pooling model	No-Claim Discount System, Merit Rating System, Experience Rating in Automobile Insurance, Prim-Ceza Sistemi
Relacionados	4	2
Resumo	Bayesian hierarchical modelling, popularised by Gelman and Hill (2006), is a Bayesian approach to nested data structures — such as students within schools within districts — that estimates separate parameters at each level while allowing those levels to share statistical strength through a mechanism called partial pooling. Where a classical hierarchical linear model treats group means as fixed unknown quantities, the Bayesian version places hyperprior distributions on those group means so that information flows freely across levels, producing more reliable group-level estimates whenever any individual group has few observations.	A Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is an actuarial experience-rating mechanism used primarily in automobile insurance to adjust individual policyholders' premiums based on their personal claim history. Policyholders who remain claim-free receive premium discounts (bonus), while those who file claims are penalised with surcharges (malus). The framework was comprehensively formalised and analysed by Jean Lemaire in his landmark 1995 monograph, which remains the definitive reference for the design and evaluation of such systems worldwide.