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Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation — Posterior-informed stochastic process modeling

Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation (BDES) integrerer Bayesiansk statistisk inferens med diskret-hendelsesbasert simulering. A priori-antakelser om systemparametere — som tjenesteytelsesrater, ankomsttider eller feilsannsynligheter — oppdateres med observerte data via Bayes' teorem, og de resulterende posterior-fordelingene driver direkte simuleringsmotoren. Denne koblingen lar modellbyggere propagere både tilfeldig og epistemisk usikkerhet gjennom hendelsesdrevne prosessmodeller.

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Kilder

  1. Onggo, B. S., & Kunc, M. (2016). Combining discrete-event simulation and Bayesian updating for incorporating evidence from real-world data. Journal of Simulation, 10(1), 1-12. link
  2. Pidd, M. (2004). Computer Simulation in Management Science (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 9780470092781

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ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation — Posterior-informed stochastic process modeling. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/no/simulation/bayesian-discrete-event-simulation

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ScholarGateBayesian Discrete-Event Simulation (Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation — Posterior-informed stochastic process modeling). Hentet 2026-06-15 fra https://scholargate.app/no/simulation/bayesian-discrete-event-simulation · Datasett: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026