Importance Sampling
Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo variance-reduction technique that shifts the sampling distribution toward the region of interest — typically a rare or extreme event — so that informative samples are drawn far more often than under the original distribution. Developed at the RAND Corporation by Herman Kahn and Theodore Harris around 1951, it makes tail-probability estimation (such as Value-at-Risk or system-failure probability) tractable where standard Monte Carlo would require an astronomically large number of runs.
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- Rubinstein, R.Y. & Kroese, D.P. (2016). Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (3rd ed.). Wiley. · DOI 10.1002/9781118631980
- Glasserman, P. (2003). Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering. Springer. · DOI 10.1007/978-0-387-21617-1
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