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| Simulasi Mikro Skenario Polisi× | Simulasi Monte Carlo× | |
|---|---|---|
| Bidang≠ | Simulasi | Pembuatan Keputusan |
| Keluarga≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1957 | 1949 |
| Pengasas≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Jenis≠ | Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation | — |
| Berkaitan≠ | 5 | 0 |
| Ringkasan≠ | Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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