SMIC Prob-Expert
SMIC Prob-Expert — from the French Systeme et Matrices d'Impacts Croises, Systems and Matrices of Cross-Impacts — is the probabilistic cross-impact method in Michel Godet's la prospective toolkit. It takes a small set of fundamental hypotheses about the future and asks experts for both the simple probability that each hypothesis comes true and the conditional probabilities linking the hypotheses to one another. Because experts' raw estimates are rarely mutually consistent, SMIC's core is a quadratic optimisation that adjusts them minimally into a coherent joint probability distribution over the 2^n possible combinations of the hypotheses. Each combination is an image of the future — a scenario — and the corrected, or net, probabilities rank these images from most to least likely. The method thereby turns scattered expert opinion into a probabilistically weighted set of scenarios, identifying the few core futures that concentrate most of the probability mass.
出典記録
引用は手法の出典記録からそのままコピーされています。それらからレベルごとの検証は推論されません。
- Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. · ISBN 9782717852448
キュレーションされた主張
主張は証拠台帳に永続化され、それぞれが独自の評価を持っています。
このビューは、台帳に主張評価がない場合、主張評価を生成しません。
関連手法
手法グラフから生成され、機械が提案した関係として表示されます — 証拠主張は推論されません。