手法を比較

	Tourism Seasonality Index	Tourism Area Life Cycle
分野	Tourism Hospitality	Tourism Studies
系統	Regression model	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2001	1980
提唱者	Svend Lundtorp; Anastassios Tsitouras	Richard W. Butler
種類	Descriptive concentration index for seasonal demand	Evolutionary stage model of destination development
原典	Lundtorp, S. (2001). Measuring Tourism Seasonality. In T. Baum & S. Lundtorp (Eds.), Seasonality in Tourism (pp. 23-50). Oxford: Pergamon/Elsevier. ISBN: 9780080436746	Butler, R. W. (1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer / Le Géographe canadien, 24(1), 5-12.
別名	Tourism Seasonality Measurement, Seasonality Gini Coefficient, Seasonal Concentration Index, Tourism Seasonality Ratio	TALC, Butler Sequence, Destination Life Cycle, Tourist Area Cycle of Evolution
関連	4	3
概要	Tourism seasonality measurement summarizes how unevenly tourism demand is distributed across the year. Destinations rarely receive visitors at a constant rate; arrivals, overnight stays, and revenue cluster in peak months and thin out in the off-season, straining capacity at the top and leaving resources idle at the bottom. Seasonality indices turn a monthly demand series into a single, comparable number measuring this temporal concentration. Simple ratios compare the peak month to the average or to the trough, while the Gini coefficient — long established in the study of inequality and adapted by Svend Lundtorp and others to tourism — captures concentration across all months at once via a Lorenz curve. Adjusted versions, such as Tsitouras's 'months equivalent' degree of seasonality, make the index easier to interpret and compare.	The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC), introduced by Richard Butler in 1980, models a destination as evolving through a recognisable sequence of stages, much as a product moves through its life cycle. Plotted as visitor numbers against time, a typical destination traces an S-shaped curve running from exploration, through involvement, development, consolidation, and stagnation, after which it faces a fork: decline, or rejuvenation. The model's central message is managerial — as a destination grows it approaches its carrying capacity, and the deteriorating physical, social, and economic conditions that follow stagnation are not inevitable but depend on whether managers intervene in time. Butler's paper, published in the Canadian Geographer, became one of the most cited frameworks in tourism studies precisely because it links a destination's growth trajectory to the resource-management decisions that determine its fate.