手法を比較

	時系列変分推論	時系列MCMC
分野	ベイズ	ベイズ
系統	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
提唱年	1999–2017	1994–1997
提唱者	Jordan, Ghahramani, Jaakkola, Saul; extended by Blei and colleagues	Carter & Kohn; West & Harrison
種類	Approximate Bayesian inference	Bayesian posterior sampling for time-ordered data
原典	Blei, D. M., Kucukelbir, A. & McAuliffe, J. D. (2017). Variational inference: A review for statisticians. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 112(518), 859-877.	Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika, 81(3), 541–553.
別名	time-series VI, variational Bayes for time series, TSVI, sequential variational inference	MCMC time series, Bayesian time series MCMC, time series posterior sampling, sequential Bayesian MCMC
関連	6	6
概要	Time series variational inference applies variational Bayes to sequential data, approximating the intractable posterior over latent states and parameters with a tractable family of distributions. By maximising the evidence lower bound (ELBO), it delivers fast, scalable Bayesian inference for state-space models, dynamic latent variable models, and other time-ordered probabilistic systems.	Time series MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to Bayesian inference over time-ordered data. Rather than optimising a single parameter estimate, it draws samples from the full joint posterior of parameters and latent states, yielding probability distributions that honestly reflect uncertainty about dynamics, trends, and seasonal patterns across every time point.