手法を比較

	Strategic Technology Roadmapping	Delphi Method for Strategy Foresight
分野	経営戦略論	経営戦略論
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2004	1975
提唱者	Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh & David Probert	Harold Linstone & Murray Turoff; Gene Rowe & George Wright
種類	Time-based strategic planning and visualization framework	Iterative structured expert-elicitation process for foresight
原典	Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping - A planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26.	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
別名	Technology-Product-Market Roadmapping, T-Plan Roadmapping, Strategic Roadmapping, Innovation Roadmapping	Corporate Delphi Foresight, Strategic Expert-Panel Forecasting, Policy Delphi for Strategy, Iterative Expert Elicitation for Foresight
関連	4	4
概要	Strategic technology roadmapping is a planning and visualization method that links what an organization should develop, when, and why by aligning three time-based layers - market drivers, products, and technologies - on a single chart. Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, and David Probert of the University of Cambridge synthesized the approach in their influential 2004 Technological Forecasting and Social Change paper, presenting roadmapping as a flexible framework that supports both incremental ('evolution') and disruptive ('revolution') strategic change. A roadmap answers, layer by layer, why the organization needs to act (market and business drivers), what products or capabilities will respond, and how technologies and resources will deliver them, all positioned against time. By making these connections explicit, roadmapping coordinates strategy, innovation, and resource allocation across functions and exposes the timing gaps and dependencies that threaten a technology strategy.	The Delphi method is a structured process for combining the judgments of a panel of experts on questions where hard data are scarce - long-range forecasts, emerging technologies, and strategic uncertainties - through several rounds of anonymous response and controlled feedback. Linstone and Turoff's 1975 collection The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications established the canonical design and its variants, including the policy Delphi used to explore strategic options rather than to pin down a single estimate. Rowe and Wright's 1999 International Journal of Forecasting review distilled the evidence on what makes Delphi work, identifying anonymity, iteration, controlled statistical feedback, and aggregation of the final round as the procedure's defining features. In strategy and corporate foresight, Delphi is used to forecast technology timelines, prioritize uncertainties, and build expert consensus to inform long-horizon decisions.