手法を比較

	安定人口理論	コーホート要因法人口予測	生命表解析
分野	人口学	人口学	人口学
系統	Regression model	Process / pipeline	Survival analysis
提唱年	1972	2001	1984
提唱者	Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale	Preston, Heuveline & Guillot	Demographic/actuarial tradition; Chiang
種類	Mathematical demographic model	Demographic projection pipeline	Age-structured mortality estimator
原典	Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2	Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2
別名	Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi	Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu	Mortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosu
関連	2	3	3
概要	Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.	Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.	A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike.