手法を比較

	シミュレーション支援故障の木解析	イベントツリー解析 (ETA)
分野	実験計画法	信頼性
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1970s–1980s (widespread adoption in nuclear and aerospace industries)	2002
提唱者	Fault tree analysis: H. A. Watson (Bell Labs, 1961); Monte Carlo integration in reliability: Herman Kahn / Stanislaw Ulam (RAND, late 1940s); combination formalized in reliability engineering literature from the 1970s onward	Andrews & Moss
種類	Quantitative reliability and risk analysis technique	Forward inductive logic tree
原典	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-0492.	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5
別名	SA-FTA, Monte Carlo FTA, simulation-based FTA, stochastic fault tree analysis	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi
関連	6	2
概要	Simulation-assisted fault tree analysis (SA-FTA) combines the logical structure of classical fault tree analysis with Monte Carlo or discrete-event simulation to estimate the probability and timing of an undesired top event when component failures follow complex, non-exponential, or correlated probability distributions. The approach overcomes the analytical limitations of Boolean algebra-based FTA and is widely used in nuclear, aerospace, chemical process, and manufacturing reliability engineering.	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.