手法を比較

	シミュレーション支援イベントツリー解析	イベントツリー解析 (ETA)
分野	実験計画法	信頼性
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1970s–1990s (formalized in probabilistic risk assessment practice)	2002
提唱者	H.A. Watson (Bell Telephone Laboratories, ETA origins ~1961); Monte Carlo integration of ETA developed in nuclear/aerospace PRA community 1970s–1990s	Andrews & Moss
種類	Probabilistic risk and reliability assessment method	Forward inductive logic tree
原典	Zio, E. (2009). Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(2), 125–141.	Andrews, J. D., & Moss, T. R. (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment (2nd ed.). Professional Engineering Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86058-290-5
別名	Monte Carlo ETA, stochastic event tree analysis, simulation-enhanced ETA, probabilistic event tree simulation	ETA, Event Sequence Diagram Analysis, Initiating Event Analysis, Olay Ağacı Analizi
関連	6	2
概要	Simulation-assisted event tree analysis (ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by replacing fixed point-estimate branch probabilities with Monte Carlo or discrete-event simulation. This allows analysts to propagate uncertainty through every branch of the tree and obtain full probability distributions over accident sequences and system outcomes, yielding far richer risk insights than deterministic ETA alone.	Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward inductive technique used in reliability and risk engineering to model the possible outcomes that follow an initiating event. Starting from a single undesired event, ETA traces all subsequent event sequences through a binary branching tree representing the success or failure of safety barriers and protective systems. Introduced formally in reliability and risk literature by Andrews and Moss (2002), it is widely applied in nuclear, chemical, and aerospace industries to quantify accident sequence probabilities and guide safety decision-making.