手法を比較

	Scenario Axes Method	Intuitive Logics Scenario Planning
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1995	1995
提唱者	Paul J. H. Schoemaker; described in Bishop, Hines & Collins's survey of scenario techniques	SRI International / Royal Dutch Shell tradition; Paul J. H. Schoemaker (codification)
種類	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline forming a 2x2 matrix from two critical uncertainties	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline using two critical uncertainties
原典	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
別名	2x2 Scenario Matrix, Double-Uncertainty Axes, Deductive Scenario Method, Two-by-Two Scenario Method	Intuitive Logics, 2x2 Scenario Matrix, Deductive Scenario Method, SRI Scenario Planning
関連	4	3
概要	The scenario axes method is the deductive, double-uncertainty technique at the heart of much modern scenario planning: take the two driving forces that matter most and are least predictable, cross them as orthogonal axes, and develop the four resulting quadrants into distinct, internally consistent scenarios. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 account of scenario planning as a tool for strategic thinking established the logic of building scenarios from a small set of critical uncertainties, and Bishop, Hines and Collins's survey of scenario techniques names the 2x2 axes approach as the most widely used deductive method. Its appeal is structural clarity: by reducing a tangle of forces to two key uncertainties and a clean matrix, it produces a manageable, memorable set of four contrasting futures that span the most important dimensions of uncertainty. Treated here as a standalone scenario-construction device, the method is prized for turning the open-ended art of scenario building into a disciplined, repeatable procedure.	Intuitive logics is the most widely used family of scenario-planning methods, in which a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about the future is constructed deductively from a few critical uncertainties. Rooted in the practice pioneered at SRI International and at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, and codified for strategic thinking by Paul Schoemaker in his 1995 Sloan Management Review article, the approach asks a planning team to identify the driving forces shaping a focal decision, rank them by how much they matter and how uncertain they are, and select two critical uncertainties that become the orthogonal axes of a two-by-two matrix. The four quadrants define four contrasting but coherent futures, each developed into a narrative. The aim is not to predict but to stretch managers' mental models and to stress-test strategy against a manageable spread of qualitatively different worlds.