手法を比較

	政策シナリオ・システムダイナミクス	政策シナリオ分析
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1960s–1990s	1967–1990s
提唱者	Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
種類	Simulation-based policy analysis	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
原典	Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
別名	PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
関連	5	5
概要	Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.