手法を比較

	政策シナリオ・ミクロシミュレーション	確率的ミクロシミュレーション
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1957	1957
提唱者	Guy H. Orcutt	Guy H. Orcutt
種類	Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis	Stochastic individual-level simulation
原典	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.
別名	PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation	Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM
関連	5	6
概要	Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation.	Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.