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	Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation	モンテカルロシミュレーション
分野	シミュレーション	意思決定
系統	Process / pipeline	MCDM
提唱年	1960s–1990s	1949
提唱者	Tocher, K. D. and Gordon, G. (early DES); policy scenario extension emerged through operations research and health policy modeling communities	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
種類	Simulation-based policy evaluation	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
原典	Law, A. M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN: 9780073401324	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
別名	Policy DES, Scenario-based DES, Policy simulation DES, DES policy analysis	—
関連	5	0
概要	Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation combines the event-by-event fidelity of Discrete-Event Simulation with systematic policy scenario analysis to evaluate how different interventions, regulations, or resource allocations change system performance. By running multiple well-defined policy scenarios through the same DES model, analysts can compare outcomes — throughput, waiting times, costs — across alternatives before real-world implementation.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.