手法を比較

	Image of the Future Analysis	Visioning Preferred Futures Workshop
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1973	2009
提唱者	Fred Polak (Frederik Lodewijk Polak)	Hawai'i School / Millennium Project futures-visioning tradition
種類	Interpretive cultural-analysis pipeline of a society's prevailing future-images	Normative, participatory backcasting pipeline toward a preferred future
原典	Polak, F. (1973). The Image of the Future (E. Boulding, Trans. & Abr.). Elsevier Scientific Publishing.	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
別名	Polak Image of the Future, Image-of-the-Future Method, Prevailing Future-Image Analysis, Polak's Influence-and-Essence Analysis	Preferred Futures Visioning, Visioning Workshop, Normative Futures Visioning, Aspirational Futures Method
関連	3	3
概要	Image of the future analysis, developed by the Dutch sociologist Fred Polak, studies the collective images a society holds of its own future and argues that these images exert a powerful pull on present action and so help shape the future they imagine. In his monumental work The Image of the Future, abridged and translated by Elise Boulding, Polak surveyed the rise and fall of civilizations and contended that cultures flourish when they hold compelling, positive images of a future worth striving for, and decline when those images fade or turn dark. The method analyzes future-images along two dimensions: their essence — whether the imagined future is good or bad, optimistic or pessimistic — and the degree of human influence they assume — whether people can shape that future or are merely subject to it. By reading a society's art, literature, ideology, and discourse for its prevailing future-images, the analyst diagnoses the cultural energy available to propel the society forward.	A Visioning Preferred Futures Workshop is a normative, participatory futures method for articulating a shared image of the future a group wants to create, and then working backward from that image to identify the pathway and the present actions that would bring it about. Where exploratory methods ask what futures might happen, visioning asks what future ought to happen and how to get there. Documented as a core technique in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, it combines aspirational image-building with backcasting: participants first agree on a compelling preferred future grounded in their shared values, then trace the milestones backward from that future to the present, and finally commit to concrete first steps. The method's power lies in mobilizing a community around a positive, jointly owned vision rather than around forecasts or fears.