手法を比較

	パネルデータ因果影響分析	因果影響分析
分野	因果推論	因果推論
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2015 (base method); panel extension mid-2010s	2015
提唱者	Brodersen et al. (2015); panel extension by Holtz et al. and subsequent literature	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
種類	Bayesian structural time-series causal inference	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
原典	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
別名	Panel CausalImpact, multi-unit causal impact, panel BSTS causal inference, panel structural time-series causal analysis	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
関連	6	5
概要	Panel data causal impact analysis extends the Bayesian structural time-series approach of Brodersen et al. (2015) to multi-unit panel settings, estimating the counterfactual for several treated units simultaneously using control units as a donor pool. It produces credible intervals for the causal effect at each post-intervention time point, aggregated across units and periods.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.