手法を比較

	Normative Scenario Backcasting	Scenario Axes Method
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1990	1995
提唱者	John B. Robinson	Paul J. H. Schoemaker; described in Bishop, Hines & Collins's survey of scenario techniques
種類	Goal-oriented pipeline constructing a milestone pathway backward from a desired future image	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline forming a 2x2 matrix from two critical uncertainties
原典	Robinson, J. B. (1990). Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8), 820-842.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
別名	Normative Backcasting, Scenario Backcasting, Goal-Oriented Backcasting, Desired-Future Backcasting	2x2 Scenario Matrix, Double-Uncertainty Axes, Deductive Scenario Method, Two-by-Two Scenario Method
関連	4	4
概要	Normative scenario backcasting inverts the usual direction of futures work: instead of projecting forward from the present to ask what is likely, it starts from an explicit image of a desired future and works backward to construct the path of milestones, conditions, and actions that would lead there. John Robinson introduced the approach in 1990 as a method for people who 'hate to predict,' arguing that when the goal is to assess whether and how a normatively preferred future could be reached, forecasting the probable is the wrong tool. Backcasting instead asks what would have to happen, in what order, for the desired endpoint to come about. Distinct from generic policy backcasting, the normative scenario variant centres on first articulating a rich, value-laden scenario image of the endpoint and then deriving the pathway from it. As Bishop, Hines and Collins note in their survey of scenario techniques, this goal-driven logic makes backcasting a natural partner to scenario methods wherever the aim is not to anticipate the future but to deliberately work toward a chosen one.	The scenario axes method is the deductive, double-uncertainty technique at the heart of much modern scenario planning: take the two driving forces that matter most and are least predictable, cross them as orthogonal axes, and develop the four resulting quadrants into distinct, internally consistent scenarios. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 account of scenario planning as a tool for strategic thinking established the logic of building scenarios from a small set of critical uncertainties, and Bishop, Hines and Collins's survey of scenario techniques names the 2x2 axes approach as the most widely used deductive method. Its appeal is structural clarity: by reducing a tangle of forces to two key uncertainties and a clean matrix, it produces a manageable, memorable set of four contrasting futures that span the most important dimensions of uncertainty. Treated here as a standalone scenario-construction device, the method is prized for turning the open-ended art of scenario building into a disciplined, repeatable procedure.