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| ニッチモデリング× | 個体群生存性分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | 生態学 | 生態学 |
| 系統 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 提唱年≠ | 1999 | 1981 |
| 提唱者≠ | Steven Phillips and David Stockwell | Mark Shaffer |
| 種類≠ | species distribution prediction | extinction risk assessment |
| 原典≠ | Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., & Schapire, R. E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190(3-4), 231-259. DOI ↗ | Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134. DOI ↗ |
| 別名≠ | species distribution modeling, habitat suitability modeling, ecological niche model, MaxEnt | PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP |
| 関連 | 4 | 4 |
| 概要≠ | Niche modeling, also called species distribution modeling (SDM), predicts the geographic range and habitat suitability of species using presence-only or presence-background occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy, Phillips et al. 2006) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, Stockwell & Peters 1999) are two prominent algorithms. These methods identify the environmental conditions under which species are likely to occur, enabling prediction of distribution beyond sampled areas and assessment of habitat suitability across landscapes. | Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor. |
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