手法を比較

	La Prospective Morphological Scenarios	MICMAC Structural Analysis
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2006	2006
提唱者	Michel Godet (LIPSOR, Conservatoire national des arts et metiers)	Michel Godet with Jean-Claude Duperrin (LIPSOR)
種類	Combinatorial scenario-construction pipeline within La Prospective	Matrix-based pipeline for classifying system variables by influence and dependence
原典	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448
別名	Godet Morphological Scenarios, Prospective Scenario Building, French School Scenario Method, Morphologie des scenarios	MICMAC, Structural Analysis, Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to a Classification, Matrice d'Impacts Croises
関連	4	3
概要	Within the French school of la prospective developed by Michel Godet, morphological scenario construction is the integrating stage that turns the outputs of structural and actor analysis into a small set of coherent images of the future. Building on Fritz Zwicky's morphological method, Godet decomposes the studied system into a set of dimensions or components, attaches to each a few mutually exclusive hypotheses about how it might evolve, and treats the Cartesian product of these hypotheses as the morphological space of all conceivable futures. Because that space is combinatorially large, the method's analytical work lies in reducing it: pruning combinations that are internally incoherent, implausible, or incompatible with the strategies of key actors, until a handful of contrasted, self-consistent scenarios remain. Distinct from general morphological analysis, this is the scenario-building application that consumes the variables identified by MICMAC and the actor positions mapped by MACTOR.	MICMAC — Matrice d'Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquee a un Classement, or Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to a Classification — is the structural-analysis tool at the front of Michel Godet's la prospective method. Developed by Godet with Jean-Claude Duperrin, it starts from a square matrix in which experts record the direct influence of each system variable on every other, then raises that matrix to successive powers to uncover the indirect influences that propagate along chains of variables. Summing the rows and columns of the iterated matrix yields each variable's overall influence and dependence, and plotting variables on the influence-dependence plane sorts them into driving (key) variables, dependent (result) variables, relay variables, and autonomous variables. The purpose is not prediction but diagnosis: to reveal which hidden variables truly drive the system, so that later scenario work focuses on the factors that matter.