手法を比較

	MICMAC Structural Analysis	MACTOR Actor Strategy Analysis
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2006	2006
提唱者	Michel Godet with Jean-Claude Duperrin (LIPSOR)	Michel Godet (LIPSOR)
種類	Matrix-based pipeline for classifying system variables by influence and dependence	Matrix-based pipeline for mapping actor power, positions, and alliances
原典	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448
別名	MICMAC, Structural Analysis, Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to a Classification, Matrice d'Impacts Croises	MACTOR, Actor Strategy Analysis, Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts, Methode des Acteurs
関連	3	3
概要	MICMAC — Matrice d'Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquee a un Classement, or Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to a Classification — is the structural-analysis tool at the front of Michel Godet's la prospective method. Developed by Godet with Jean-Claude Duperrin, it starts from a square matrix in which experts record the direct influence of each system variable on every other, then raises that matrix to successive powers to uncover the indirect influences that propagate along chains of variables. Summing the rows and columns of the iterated matrix yields each variable's overall influence and dependence, and plotting variables on the influence-dependence plane sorts them into driving (key) variables, dependent (result) variables, relay variables, and autonomous variables. The purpose is not prediction but diagnosis: to reveal which hidden variables truly drive the system, so that later scenario work focuses on the factors that matter.	MACTOR — Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts: Tactics, Objectives, and Recommendations — is the actor-analysis method in Michel Godet's la prospective toolkit, designed to study the strategy game among the players who shape a system's future. Where structural analysis with MICMAC maps variables, MACTOR maps actors: it builds a matrix of the direct means of action each actor can exert on the others, from which it derives competitive-strength coefficients (the Ri ratios) that gauge each actor's power, and a second matrix recording where each actor stands, for or against, on the contested objectives at stake. By weighting actors' positions by their power and comparing them objective by objective, MACTOR computes the convergences and divergences among actors, revealing potential alliances, latent conflicts, and the balance of power. The result is a strategic diagnosis that informs scenario construction by exposing which futures the actor field would support or resist.