手法を比較

	MACTOR Actor Strategy Analysis	La Prospective Morphological Scenarios
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2006	2006
提唱者	Michel Godet (LIPSOR)	Michel Godet (LIPSOR, Conservatoire national des arts et metiers)
種類	Matrix-based pipeline for mapping actor power, positions, and alliances	Combinatorial scenario-construction pipeline within La Prospective
原典	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448
別名	MACTOR, Actor Strategy Analysis, Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts, Methode des Acteurs	Godet Morphological Scenarios, Prospective Scenario Building, French School Scenario Method, Morphologie des scenarios
関連	3	4
概要	MACTOR — Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts: Tactics, Objectives, and Recommendations — is the actor-analysis method in Michel Godet's la prospective toolkit, designed to study the strategy game among the players who shape a system's future. Where structural analysis with MICMAC maps variables, MACTOR maps actors: it builds a matrix of the direct means of action each actor can exert on the others, from which it derives competitive-strength coefficients (the Ri ratios) that gauge each actor's power, and a second matrix recording where each actor stands, for or against, on the contested objectives at stake. By weighting actors' positions by their power and comparing them objective by objective, MACTOR computes the convergences and divergences among actors, revealing potential alliances, latent conflicts, and the balance of power. The result is a strategic diagnosis that informs scenario construction by exposing which futures the actor field would support or resist.	Within the French school of la prospective developed by Michel Godet, morphological scenario construction is the integrating stage that turns the outputs of structural and actor analysis into a small set of coherent images of the future. Building on Fritz Zwicky's morphological method, Godet decomposes the studied system into a set of dimensions or components, attaches to each a few mutually exclusive hypotheses about how it might evolve, and treats the Cartesian product of these hypotheses as the morphological space of all conceivable futures. Because that space is combinatorially large, the method's analytical work lies in reducing it: pruning combinations that are internally incoherent, implausible, or incompatible with the strategies of key actors, until a handful of contrasted, self-consistent scenarios remain. Distinct from general morphological analysis, this is the scenario-building application that consumes the variables identified by MICMAC and the actor positions mapped by MACTOR.