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	Lee-Carterモデル	安定人口理論
分野	人口学	人口学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1992	1972
提唱者	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter	Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale
種類	Stochastic mortality forecasting model	Mathematical demographic model
原典	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.	Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4
別名	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli	Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi
関連	2	2
概要	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.	Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.