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| Lee-Carterモデル× | 生命表解析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | 人口学 | 人口学 |
| 系統≠ | Regression model | Survival analysis |
| 提唱年≠ | 1992 | 1984 |
| 提唱者≠ | Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter | Demographic/actuarial tradition; Chiang |
| 種類≠ | Stochastic mortality forecasting model | Age-structured mortality estimator |
| 原典≠ | Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗ | Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2 |
| 別名 | LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli | Mortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosu |
| 関連≠ | 2 | 3 |
| 概要≠ | The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections. | A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike. |
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