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	キッチ・バイラム干ばつ指数	Rothermel Fire Model
分野	林学	林学
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1968	1972
提唱者	John Keetch	Richard Rothermel
種類	drought index	fire propagation model
原典	Keetch, J. J., & Byram, G. M. (1968). A drought index for forest fire control. Research Paper SE-38, USDA Forest Service Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.	Rothermel, R. C. (1972). A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels. Research Paper INT-115, USDA Forest Service Intermountain Research Station.
別名	KBDI, drought severity index	fire spread model, BEHAVE model
関連	2	3
概要	The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a cumulative drought severity index used in fire danger rating systems to track long-term soil moisture depletion and drying trends. Developed in 1968 by Keetch and Byram, KBDI integrates daily temperature, precipitation, and prior drought state to produce a continuous index ranging from 0 (no drought, moist soil) to 800 (severe drought, very dry soil). KBDI is widely used in fire danger prediction and fire behavior modeling because soil moisture is a major driver of fuel drying and flammability.	The Rothermel fire spread model, developed by Richard Rothermel in 1972, is a mechanistic mathematical model that predicts the rate of fire spread through surface fuels using fuel characteristics, weather, and topography. It forms the theoretical foundation of the BEHAVE fire modeling system used operationally by fire agencies worldwide. The model integrates principles from combustion physics, heat transfer, and fuel science to quantify how fire intensity, fuel moisture, wind, and slope interact to drive wildfire propagation.