手法を比較

	Horizon Scanning	Foresight Scenario Method	Technology Foresight
分野	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2009	1995	1995
提唱者	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes
種類	Systematic search-and-detection process	Structured future-construction process	Participatory future-oriented strategic process
原典	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
別名	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis
関連	4	4	4
概要	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.