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| Holt-Winters三重指数平滑法× | ARIMA（自己回帰和分移動平均）モデル× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | 計量経済学 | 計量経済学 |
| 系統 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 提唱年≠ | 1960 | 2015 |
| 提唱者≠ | Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) |
| 種類≠ | Exponential smoothing forecasting model | Univariate time-series model |
| 原典≠ | Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 |
| 別名≠ | triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli |
| 関連≠ | 4 | 5 |
| 概要≠ | Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series. | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). |
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