手法を比較

	Gompertz Substitution Forecasting	Fisher-Pry Substitution Model
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1971	1971
提唱者	Benjamin Gompertz (curve); growth-curve technology forecasters (Lenz, Martino) and the Fisher-Pry tradition	John C. Fisher & Robert H. Pry (General Electric)
種類	Growth-curve diffusion pipeline for technology adoption and substitution	Logistic-growth forecasting pipeline for technological substitution
原典	Fisher, J. C., & Pry, R. H. (1971). A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 75-88.	Fisher, J. C., & Pry, R. H. (1971). A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 75-88.
別名	Gompertz Diffusion Forecasting, Gompertz Growth-Curve Forecasting, Asymmetric S-Curve Technology Forecasting, Gompertz Adoption Model	Fisher-Pry Model, Technological Substitution Model, Logistic Substitution Forecasting, Fisher-Pry Curve
関連	3	2
概要	Gompertz substitution forecasting projects the adoption, diffusion, or substitution of a technology by fitting the asymmetric Gompertz growth curve to historical data and extrapolating it toward a saturation ceiling. Like the symmetric logistic used in the Fisher-Pry substitution model, the Gompertz curve captures the characteristic S-shape of technological change — slow initial uptake, rapid mid-life growth, and tapering as the market saturates — but unlike the logistic it is asymmetric, reaching its fastest growth early, at roughly 37 percent of the ceiling rather than at the midpoint. This makes it a natural choice when a new technology accelerates quickly and then approaches its limit gradually. Within the futures and foresight toolkit catalogued by Glenn and Gordon, growth-curve forecasting of this kind is a core quantitative method for anticipating when a technology will mature and when a successor is likely to displace it.	The Fisher-Pry Substitution Model, introduced by John Fisher and Robert Pry of General Electric in 1971, is a foundational technique for forecasting technological substitution — the process by which a new technology displaces an older one. Its empirical premise, supported by dozens of historical cases from synthetic to natural materials and from one manufacturing process to another, is that the fractional market share captured by the new technology follows a logistic (S-shaped) growth curve. The model's elegance lies in a transformation: when the takeover ratio f/(1-f), the ratio of the new technology's share to the old's, is plotted on a logarithmic scale against time, the substitution traces a straight line. This linearization makes it easy to fit, interpret, and extrapolate substitutions from sparse early data, which is why the Fisher-Pry curve remains a workhorse of technological forecasting.