手法を比較

	一般化自己回帰条件付き分散 (GARCH)	指数 GARCH (EGARCH)	単純指数平滑法（SES）およびホルト法（Double Exponential Smoothing）
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1986	1991	1957
提唱者	Tim Bollerslev	Nelson	Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend)
種類	Conditional volatility model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Exponential smoothing forecasting model
原典	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill.
別名	GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	SES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt)
関連	5	4	3
概要	GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns.	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta.